Harris winning big among Democrats, but even bigger among atheists and those who say they rarely or never attend church

Baptist Report Analysis

The past several weeks have been wild in the race for President of the United States – and if you believe the mainstream polling data – Kamala Harris is soundly in the lead and beating former President Donald Trump handily.

Or is she?

Mark Mitchell, head pollster for Rasmussen Reports, says polling from his organization has consistently shown Trump to be leading among likely voters – but his evaluation isn’t without caveats.

First, Harris saw a significant bump after President Joe Biden left the race, and it seems her momentum – if that’s what you want to call it – held through and immediately following the Democratic National Convention held recently in Chicago.

However, following those two events Mitchell said the polls settled down and now show that – while it’s a closer race than with Biden as the nominee – Trump still leads the race slightly, which Rasmussen polling has indicated practically throughout the 2024 campaign.

What’s more, it does not consider the recent announcement by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspending his campaign and throwing his support to the Trump campaign.

On August 22 Rasmussen Reports said Trump was in the lead in the race but Democrats were closing the gap.

“The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, in a two-way matchup, 49% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for Trump, while 46% would vote for Harris.”

In five crucial “battleground” states the race is tighter, Rasmussen reported August 27.

“A new telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and NumbersUSA finds that if the election were held today, 48% of Likely Voters in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin would vote for Trump, while 47% would vote for Harris. Three percent (3%) say they’d vote for some other candidate and two percent (2%) are undecided.”

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Perhaps the most interesting thing to Baptist Report readers is who plans to vote for Trump versus Harris for president. Mitchell included the information as a footnote to a review of polling data.

“Donald Trump is winning among anyone who says they’re a part of an organized religion. But Kamala Harris is winning big, even bigger than among Democrats, among atheists. And she’s also beating Trump handily by like 20 points among people who say they’re agnostic or not sure what their religion is,” Mitchell said in a recent Rasmussen video on YouTube.

“And then Donald Trump is also winning with every human being in America, except for people who say they rarely or never attend church. It's like some kind of weird holy war going on,” Mitchell said.

The current RealClearPolitics.com average of all major polls gives Harris a 48.4 to 46.9 or a 1.5% advantage over Trump in the 2024 General Election.